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연구정보

PLUNGING OIL PRICES IMPACT MALAYSIA’S AND INDONESIA’S ECONOMY

말레이시아 국외연구자료 기타 Chung Tin Fah, Ong Jie Shi Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance 발간일 : 2017-01-05 등록일 : 2017-02-20 원문링크

Oil has a profound impact on the world economy. This study examines the impact of changes (falling) in oil prices on the two oil producing ASEAN countries – Malaysia and Indonesia using quarterly data from 2005:Q1 to 2014:Q4. A cointegration analysis using an autoregressive distributed lag equation (ARDL) is conducted between oil and the Malaysian and Indonesian economy. Next, single equations are estimated on the impact of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables, followed by a VAR formulation to trace the impact of oil price using impulse response function and variance decomposition. The single equation estimates indicate that real oil prices have a significant positive impact on Malaysia/Indonesia GDP, while it is insignificant on inflation rate and real exchange rate. Using an unrestricted VAR model, real oil price growth shocks have positive and negative response on the growth of Malaysia GDP, Indonesia GDP and US GDP. However, the negative response is found more significant for the growth of Indonesia GDP, while the growth of US GDP has a larger influence on Malaysia GDP as compared to Indonesia GDP. Changes in real oil price are less impactful on Malaysia government expenditure and Malaysian Ringgit, compared to inflation rate and net exports.

 

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