중동부유럽

On June 12, 2019, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation  [1]  with the Czech Republic and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting.  [2]

The economy is doing well, but supply constraints are biting. Growth has slowed as the economy has reached capacity limits, with very low unemployment even as participation has increased. Recent wage increases have been very strong, ahead of productivity. So far, inflation remains contained. The economy continues to run a current account surplus, even though domestic absorption has picked up. But the housing market is pressured, especially in metropolitan areas.

Growth is forecast to moderate. In the near term, domestic demand is expected to remain strong but slow down; external demand is expected to slow in the first half of the year and recover in the second, causing growth to moderate to 2.5 percent for 2019 and continue around that rate over the medium term. Risks to this outlook are mainly external and to the downside, such as from a disorderly Brexit or further weakness in Germany. The outlook for inflation—and hence the monetary stance—is uncertain, as the outcome will depend on which of domestic inflationary and imported disinflationary pressures will dominate.