러시아ㆍ유라시아

The EDB operating region is actively involved in international trade and the movement of financial assets. Its member States’ export and import operations remain commodity dominated, so their economies stay exposed to fluctuations in the world commodity markets – mainly, energy markets. The openness of the region’s economies and the degree of integration of its biggest countries (Russia and Kazakhstan) into the global financial market means that external demand shocks have a considerable impact on their economic development. This is illustrated, for example, by the fact that the business cycles in EDB member countries and the world’s major economies show signs of being synchronous. Due to the high significance of the world oil market and external demand trends for the region’s economic development, this study aims to quantify the effect of the said shocks on the Bank’s member economies. The scenario calculations used the integrated system of models implemented by the EDB. The first risk scenario (decline of world demand) assumes an adverse effect of mounting trade tensions between the USA and China on global economic activity. As this scenario unfolds, the decline of world demand for and prices of energy commodities will lead to a slowdown of economic growth in the EDB operating region by 0.3 pp over a year’s time. The second risk scenario assumes an exogenous oil depreciation shock resulting from a temporary increase in supply. According to our estimates, the EDB member countries’ aggregated GDP growth will slow down by 0.14 pp during a year in response to a short-term 10% decrease in oil prices. The differences in the said external shocks’ impact on economic activity in the region’s countries mainly result from their different transmission channels. This report consists of two sections. The first one describes the main channels of the global economy’s influence on EDB member countries. The second one assesses them and describes the shock transmission for each State.