중남미
연구정보
[경제] Jobs and Distributive Effects of Infrastructure Investment : The Case of Argentina
아르헨티나 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - World Bank 발간일 : 2021-06-01 등록일 : 2021-08-15 원문링크
This paper assesses the short-term job generation potential of infrastructure investments in Argentina. The analysis is based on a 2017 Input-Output model with a breakdown of the construction sector into multiple infrastructure subsectors. The disaggregation was possible with a novel database with cost structures for about 70 infrastructure projects. The analysis reveals significant heterogeneity across subsectors of infrastructure investment, with job generation potential ranging between 15,000 and 49,000 annualized direct, indirect and induced jobs in the short-term per US1 billion dollars invested, depending on the type of infrastructure project considered. The results show that public housing and rural road maintenance, followed by railway construction, water and sanitation and urban infrastructure have the highest potential to generate jobs in the short-term. On the other hand, road construction and energy distribution are activities with lower short-term generation potential, but with higher long-term impact on GDP growth according to their elasticities estimates in the literature. The analysis reveals the characteristics of the projects that are determinants of the degree of job generation potential, these include: labor intensity, split between skilled and unskilled labor, ratio of imports to total investment, technology, among others. Infrastructure investment in sectors with high potential for employment generation compares favorably with pure demand stimulus check programs in terms of the effects on income growth for the poor and across all quintiles. However, infrastructure investment in sectors with low employment potential tend to have relatively more limited distributive effects. It is argued that to optimize job generation potential of infrastructure investment in the short-term as a fiscal stimulus, and in the long-term as a foundation for future growth, interventions must be ready for implementation, with low risk of delays, and selected based on sound economic analysis. Also, policymakers must pursue projects with high economic returns to enable a more productive and competitive economy and look for opportunities in which public sector investment can crowd in rather than crowd out private sector investment.
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