러시아ㆍ유라시아
연구정보
[국제관계] Putin’s likely course of action in Ukraine – Part 2
러시아 국외연구자료 연구보고서 AEI 발간일 : 2021-12-11 등록일 : 2022-02-09 원문링크
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Russian President Vladimir Putin is amassing a large force near the Ukrainian border and reportedly has a military plan to invade and conquer most of unoccupied Ukraine. Western leaders are rightly taking the threat of such an invasion very seriously, and we cannot dismiss the possibility that Putin will order his military to execute it. However, the close look at what such an invasion would entail presented in this report and the risks and costs Putin would have to accept in ordering it leads us to forecast that he is very unlikely to launch an invasion of unoccupied Ukraine this winter. Putin is much more likely to send Russian forces into Belarus and possibly overtly into Russian-occupied Donbas. He might launch a limited incursion into unoccupied southeastern Ukraine that falls short of a full-scale invasion.
본 페이지에 등재된 자료는 운영기관(KIEP) 및 EMERiCs의 공식적인 입장을 대변하고 있지 않습니다.
| 이전글 | [국제관계] Putin’s likely course of action in Ukraine – Part 3 | 2022-02-09 |
|---|---|---|
| 다음글 | [국제관계] Putin’s likely course of action in Ukraine – Part 1 | 2022-02-09 |
