중동부유럽
연구정보
[경제] Feeling Rich, Feeling Poor: Housing Wealth Effects and Consumption in Europe
중동부유럽 일반 국외연구자료 연구보고서 IMF 발간일 : 2023-12-08 등록일 : 2023-12-28 원문링크
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Households across Europe are struggling with a double crisis—the worst inflation shock since the World War II and a sudden correction in house prices. There is a rich literature on how housing price cycles affect consumer spending, finding mixed results with a wide range of consumption responses to changes in housing wealth. In this paper, using quarterly data on 20 countries in Europe over the period 1980–2023, we analyze the dynamic relationship between inflation-adjusted housing wealth and consumer spending and obtain statistically significant and economically intuitive results. Household consumption responds positively and swiftly to changes in real house prices and gross disposable income as expected. Using the estimated coefficients, we can deduce that the average quarter-on-quarter decline of -1.96 percent in real house prices in the first quarter of 2023 in Europe could dampen consumer spending by about -0.51 percentage points in real terms on a cumulative basis over a horizon of eight quarters.
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