러시아ㆍ유라시아

While Mongolia’s economy is starting to slow from its brisk pace of recent years, the medium-term growth outlook remains firmly positive. The strong economic recovery since 2017 has been underpinned by impressive fiscal outcomes, better coordination of macroeconomic policy, favorable global commodity prices, and strong recovery in private investment. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth strengthened to 7.2 percent in 2018 from 5.3 percent in 2017. Following the gradual decline in commodity prices combined with a reduction in the quality of key mineral exports, growth moderated to 6.3 percent in the first nine months of 2019 and is expected to slow to 5.8 percent for the year as a whole. Medium-term growth prospects remain positive (averaging 5.6 percent in 2020–21), largely supported by robust growth in private consumption and continued steady investment in mining and manufacturing. This forecast is predicated on the government’s continued commitment to fiscal consolidation to contain public debt in the medium term by improving revenue mobilization and controlling public spending.