러시아ㆍ유라시아
연구정보
[경제] The Economic Impact of War
우크라이나 국외연구자료 연구보고서 World Bank 발간일 : 2022-10-20 등록일 : 2022-10-23 원문링크
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Measuring the economic impact of a war is a daunting task. Common indicators like casualties, infrastructure damages, and gross domestic product effects provide useful benchmarks, but they fail to capture the complex welfare effects of wars. This paper proposes a new method to estimate the welfare impact of conflicts and remedy common data constraints in conflict-affected environments. The method first estimates how agents regard spatial welfare differentials by voting with their feet, using pre-conflict data. Then, it infers a lower-bound estimate for the conflict-driven welfare shock from partially observed post-conflict migration patterns. A case study of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine between 2014 and 2019 shows a large lower-bound welfare loss for Donetsk residents equivalent to between 7.28 and 24.79 percent of life-time income depending on agents’ time preferences.
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| 이전글 | [경제] International investment implications of Russia’s war against Ukraine | 2022-06-17 |
|---|---|---|
| 다음글 | [국제관계] War and Sovereignty: Lessons from Putin’s War for the South Caucasus | 2022-11-06 |
