러시아ㆍ유라시아
연구정보
[경제] Spillovers from Russia to Neighboring Countries: Transmission Channels and Policy Options
러시아 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - IMF 발간일 : 2023-09-08 등록일 : 2023-09-17 원문링크
This paper studies how output fluctuations in Russia are transmitted internationally. Using vector autoregression (VAR) and dynamic panel models, the paper finds that Russia’s output fluctuations are an important driver of output fluctuations of countries in the region, especially for oil importers, and are transmitted increasingly via trade and market confidence channels. The magnitude of cross-border spillovers is larger for countries with relatively high bilateral trade concentration, low export diversification, and weak external buffers. The paper also finds evidence that stronger public institutional quality- especially in the fiscal area- may help insulate countries from volatility in the Russian sovereign debt market.
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