아프리카ㆍ중동

Strategic dialogue between Iraq and the US (United States) came to the conclusion that coalition troops should be withdrawn on 31 December 2021, with the coalition’s mission becoming a purely advisory role. However, there remain a number of reasons that could push the US to end its advisory support as well and fully withdraw from Iraq. This brief argues that there are three key factors that might push US and coalition forces to a full withdrawal from Iraq. First, the continuation of attacks from Iranian-backed militias against US forces in Iraq, especially if the next Iraqi government is dominated by pro-Iranian political elite and/or the new prime minster is a pro-Iranian character. Second, the US failure to build a stable and democratic system may prove another factor influencing a full US withdrawal. Third, the powerful desire within the Biden Administration to reduce US involvement in the Middle East, including withdrawing forces from the MENA region, could prove to be the nail in the coffin. Considering the abovementioned factors, the probable full US withdrawal from Iraq will have serious implications for both Iraq and the Kurdistan Region. In this regard, a full withdrawal would pose even further domestic and regional challenges for Iraq, which even now is unable to avoid being pulled into its neighbors’ regional rivalries.