중남미

Recent developments. Following a severe recession in 2015-16, real GDP grew by 1 percent in 2017. Inflation declined below the inflation target range, prompting the Central Bank to cut interest rates to historic lows. Despite fiscal consolidation in 2017, public debt has reached 84 percent of GDP and fiscal reforms have stalled. Outlook. GDP is projected to grow at 1.8 and 2.5 percent in 2018 and 2019, respectively, driven by a recovery in domestic consumption and investment. The 2018 budget loosens the fiscal stance. Even if federal expenditure remains constant in real terms at its 2016 level, as mandated by a constitutional rule, public debt is expected to rise further and peak in 2023 at above 90 percent of GDP.