아프리카ㆍ중동

This paper analyzes the impacts of FDI inflow on vertical and horizontal export diversification based on a balanced panel data of 40 African and 12 East Asian countries from 1995 to 2010. The study employed a GLS Random Effect Estimation Method with corrected heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. The empirical result suggests a one percent increase in the ratio of FDI to GDP triggers a 5.6 and 14 percentage points’ increases in vertical export diversification in Africa and East Asia, respectively. Similarly, a one percent increase in the ratio of FDI to GDP results an increase in 0.035 units in the horizontal export diversification index in East Asia, but no evidence found for FDI to induce horizontal export diversification in Africa. Other important control variables found to be essentials for diversification include: income per capita, quality of infrastructure, population size and degree of openness. The key lesson for Africa from East Asia implies the contributions of FDI towards to value-added export diversification and structural change may in part depends on the interactions of other institutions and policy measures including investment in human capital and physical infrastructure together with stable macroeconomic environment and more degree of openness.