아프리카ㆍ중동

In recent years, international commentators have increasingly interpreted the Egyptian economy as a success story due to the country’s strong growth performance and improving macroeconomic fundamentals. Pro-government Egyptian media have used this narrative of a ‘success story’ to imply that the economy has fared better under President Sisi than former President Morsi. The secondary implication is that strong-man rule is therefore perhaps better for the country than democracy after all. Careful inspection, however, demonstrates that whatever financial relief the country has experienced in recent years has been due to foreign capital inflows to the country. Official lenders approve of the Sisi administration for its geopolitical positioning while private investors merely seek the high interest rates guaranteed by the IMF programme. Excessive borrowing, most of which is short-term carry trade or is otherwise used for unproductive construction projects, is not sustainable and will likely lead to financial instability in the future.