아프리카ㆍ중동

In post-ISIL Iraq the country has little chance to remain as unified democratic state. The foreign intervention and Iranian expansionist policies in the form of building buffer of satellite states on its borders in particular, will leave a permanent impact on the nature of the emerging regime in Iraq. Besides, the issue of growing sectarianism, and ethnic polarization and wil create low intensity conflicts which will be a salient feature of the future political system. It is our contention that unless Iran is restrained in its regional hegemonic policies, Iraq will be disintegrated into two or three entities along sectarian and ethnic lines, and this will have regional consequences with far-reaching consequences