아프리카ㆍ중동

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the feasibility of a connection in Somalia's piracy and Al-Qaeda. Piracy and rising Islamist militancy have intensified US and European diplomatic interest in Somalia, while African perceptions of the establishment of US AFRICOM and the growing likelihood that the Combined Joint Task Force- Horn of Africa in Djibouti would become a long-term American base, have posed a strategic communications challenge for the United States. A deteriorating humanitarian situation in drought-plagued Somalia,precipitated by the October 2009 US suspension of food aid over fears that aid workers were diverting it to terrorists, and the prospect of unmanageable numbers of Somali refugees fleeing over comparatively stable Kenya's border, have increased pressure on Washington to revise US policy. These factors could lead to a new approach,consonant with the evolving emphasis on nuanced counter-insurgency,involving the application of soft power, such as development aid, with less scrutiny on governance. Robust, high-profile international diplomatic or military initiatives in Somalia, however, are unlikely. Near-term developments in Somalia will probably follow the depressingly familiar pattern whereby the Transitional Federal Government and Islamist militias maintain an uneasy military stalemate,with neither building the political infrastructure and good will required to tip the balance decisively.