아프리카ㆍ중동
연구정보
[사회] Long-Run Impacts of the Conflict in Ukraine on Food Security in Africa
아프리카ㆍ 중동 일반 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - IFW 발간일 : 2022-03-29 등록일 : 2022-04-13 원문링크
Many African countries heavily rely on imports of agricultural commodities and agricultural inputs from Ukraine and Russia, for example wheat, other grains, and fertilizer. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted global access to grains due to reduced production, exports, and increased trade costs. This policy brief investigates the possible long-term consequences of the conflict on food security in Africa. We use a long-run general equilibrium trade model and study three scenarios that may evolve as a consequence of the conflict: 1) Ending exports of Ukrainian wheat and other cereals for food production, such as corn or sorghum. 2) Russia's potential ban on exports of grains and fertilizers, and 3) The impact of increased trade costs due to disrupted trade routes in the Black Sea. The model simulations show the conflict will severely compromise food security in Africa. We document important cross-country heterogeneity in the severity of impacts.
본 페이지에 등재된 자료는 운영기관(KIEP) 및 EMERiCs의 공식적인 입장을 대변하고 있지 않습니다.
| 이전글 | [경제] Rural Employment in Africa : Trends and Challenges | 2022-03-13 |
|---|---|---|
| 다음글 | [경제] Who Lends to Africa and How? Introducing the Africa Debt Database | 2022-04-13 |
