아프리카ㆍ중동
연구정보
[경제] Exchange Rate Undervaluation and African Surges: What Do We Learn From Exported Products?
아프리카ㆍ 중동 일반 국외연구자료 연구보고서 La Banque de France 발간일 : 2022-12-07 등록일 : 2022-12-31 원문링크
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We investigate the role of undervaluation of African currencies in export “surges” of some primary and manufactured goods. We calculate country-product specific misalignments on the basis of the absolute purchasing power parity principle adjusted for the productivity level. Using a panel of 41 African countries and a basket of 149 primary and manufactured exported goods (4-digit HS code), we identify 96 export surges over the period 1995-2017. The complementary log-log (cloglog), which more appropriately treats rare events, brings to light undervaluation as an influential determinant for triggering an export surge then sustaining it over time. This effect is controlled for relevant covariates. Results prove robust to alternative calculations of export surges and to different estimators used in regression analyses.
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